Day 3 Shortlist of matching horses to previous winners profile are below, based on trends

1:30 Bob Olinger

2:10 Sassy Yet Classy

Third Wind

2:50 Allaho 

Mister Fisher

3:30 Royal Kahala

4:10 The Glancing Queen

Adrimel

4:50 Hors Piste

5:30 Almazhar Garde

Thursday 17th March (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends

    1.30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f 166y ITV

2021 Winner: CHANTRY HOUSE (9/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

• 9 of the 11 winners were Irish-trained
• 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 11 winners
• 8 of the last 11 winners had won a Graded Chase before
• 10 of the last 11 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
• 8 of the last 11 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
• 8 of the last 11 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
• 9 of the last 11 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
• 10 of the 11 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 8 of the last 11 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
• 10 of the last 11 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 9 of the last 11 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
• 8 of the last 11 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
• 3 outright winning favourites in the last 7 runnings
• 8 of the last 11 winners won last time out
• 10 of the last 11 winners French (4) or Irish (6) bred
• 5 of the last 11 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 6 of the last 11 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
• 7 year-olds have won 7 of last 11 renewals
• 6 of the last 7 winners rated 151+
• 3 of the last 11 winners owned by Gigginstown House Stud
• Gordon Elliott is 2 from 4
• McManus has owned 2 of the last 3 winners

Negatives….

• Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
• Just 3 British-trained winners so far (0-9)
• The top-rated horse is just 1 from 11
• Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
• 4 winning favourites in 11 runnings (1 co)
• 5 year-olds are 0-from-6
• Just 1 of the last 11 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
• Just 2 winners had been off for more than 54 days

2.10 – Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2021 Winner: MRS MILNER (12/1)
Trainer – Paul Nolan
Jockey – BJ Cooper

Pluses….

• 9 of the last 12 winners started their careers in bumpers (6) or points (2)
• Irish have won the last 6 runnings
• Last 10 winners aged 8 or younger
• Last 6 winners trained in Ireland
• Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
• 9 of the last 14 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 10 of the last 21 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 10 of the last 15 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
• 9 of the last 11 winners were rated between 138-148
• 10 of the last 17 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 9 of the last 10 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 6 of the last 9 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
• 7 of the last 8 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• 8 of the last 21 winners won their last race
• 5 of the last 6 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 3 of the last 13 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 4 runnings
• Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 6 winners
• Respect horses with headgear (7 since 2000)

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
• Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
• 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
• Only 2 winning favourites in last 16 years
• Just 1 winner in the last 39 aged 10+
• Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 8 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 47

2.40 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV

2021 Winner: ALLAHO (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore  

Pluses….

• 13 of the 17 winners had won at Cheltenham before
• 7 of the last 9 winners were 2nd season chasers
• All 14 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
• 10 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
• 11 of the last 14 had won or placed at the Festival before
• The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 28)
• The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
• 14 of the last 17 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• 13 of the last 14 winners were rated 161+
• 4 of the last 17 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
• 13 of last 17 winners were fav or 2nd fav
• 10 of the last 14 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 15 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 8 of the last 10 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
• Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
• Respect first time headgear (3 from 10)
• 9 of the last 14 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Last 8 winners were French-bred
• All winners ran 4 or less times that season
• 4 of the last 6 winners trained by Willie Mullins

Negatives….

• • The Irish are 5 from 62 runners in this race
  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • No winner aged 11 or older
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below
  • Just 5 of the last 14 won last time out
  • No winner was having their Festival debut

3.30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2021 Winner: FLOORING PORTER (12/1)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Danny Mullins   

Pluses….

• 13 of the last 17 won last time out
• 7 of the last 8 winners were second season hurdlers
• 29 of the last 32 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
• 17 of the last 21 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 8 of the last 20 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 8 of the last 15 ran in the Cleeve Hurdle
• 19 of the last 22 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 13 of the last 17 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race
• 16 of the last 25 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
• 3 of the last 4 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
• Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
• Avoid front runners
• The Irish are have won the race just 4 times since 1995
• Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
• Previous Albert Bartlett winners have an overall poor record (1 from 16), but horses that ran in the race have won the last 3
• Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 71
• Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 59)

4.10 – Paddy Power Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV

2021 Winner: THE SHUNTER (9/4 fav)
Trainer – Emmet Mullins
Jockey – Jordan Gainford

Pluses….

• 28 of the last 34 winners were officially rated 140 or less
• 11 of the last 13 winners carried under 11-0
• Look out for French-breds
• 13 of the last 17 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
• 11 of the last 18 winners had won a race in Feb or March
• Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
• The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 24 runnings
• 16 of the last 21 winners returned at double-figure odds
• 21 of the last 30 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 11 were having Festival debut)
• 21 of the last 22 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 9 of the last 12 winners had 9 or less chase runs
• 17 of the last 22 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
• The last 6 winners were novices or second season chasers
• 16 of the last 18 winners had raced that calendar year

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
• The Irish have only sent out 5 winners since 1951
• Only 2 of the last 18 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
• 4 winning favourites in the last 16 years
• Only 4 of last 27 won with 11st+
• Winners of a chase at Cheltenham before have an overall poor record, but the 2019 and 2020 winners did defy this trend.
• Only 2 of the last 18 winners ha

 4.50 – Mares’ (Dawn Run) Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV

2021 Winner: TELLMESOMETHINGGIRL
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses….

• A new race (Just 6 renewals)
• All 6 winners trained in Ireland
• Favourites have won 3 of the 6 runnings
• 3 of the last 6 winners won last time out
• 4 of the 6 winners were French-bred
• 4 of the last 6 winners were top or 2nd top rated
• 5 of the last 6 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 5 of the last 6 past winners started their careers in France
• 3 of the 6 winners were unbeaten that season
• Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 6 runnings (just 4 runners)
• 4 of the 6 winners have been aged 5 years-old
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
• Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 6 runnings

Negatives….

• Irish bred mares are just 2-from-45
• British trained runners are 0-from-43
• British bred mares are 0-from-17
• Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-8
• JP McManus owned are 0-from-7
• 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-16

  5.30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV

2021 Winner: MOUNT IDA (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Denise Foster
Jockey – Jack Kennedy

Pluses….

• Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
• 11 of the last 14 winners failed to win earlier that season
• The last 10 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
• 9 of the last 12 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
• 9 of the last 12 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
  9 of the last 13 winners ran in February
• Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
• Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
• 18 of the last 22 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
• Look for non-claiming amateur riders
• 10 of the last 11 winners wore headgear
• 11 of the last 13 winners came from the top 6 in the market
• Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 13 winners
• Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
• Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (3 of the last 10)
• 18 of the last 19 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

• Just 5 Irish winners in last 38 years (but have won 5 of the last 8)
• Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
• Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 23
• Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
• Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
• French breds are 0 from 68 since 2005
• Avoid claiming jockeys – 2 from 96 since 2009
• Just 1 of the last 19 winners won last time out